Lockinge Stakes 2025 Runners Guide & Tips
This is a cracking renewal of the Lockinge Stakes, with many top-class horses as you would expect, including three Guineas winners. So who wins? Read on to find my thoughts.
One Dance Too Many?
Dancing Gemini (7/2) has won both starts in good style this season and has his chance. Ryan Moore takes the ride this time, so he’s sure to prove popular, but the question I have with him is the ground.
The only previous time he competed on going as quick as this saw him well held in a Group 3 at Goodwood last August.
Despite looking impressive in both starts this season, I do think he’s had perfect openings as well, especially last time, where he had the fitness edge on a few of his opponents.
He will bid to go one step further than Charyn, who won both the same races he did before finishing second in this race.
Big Turnaround Required for the Gosden’s Runner
Lead Artist (14/1) failed to beat a rival home on his return behind Dancing Gemini, but he should do better this time.
It’s worth pointing out that he also beat him at Goodwood last August, so he certainly has a bit of class, and the rattling fast ground will suit.
He could run well at huge odds, but a personal best is needed if he’s to win this event.
Last Year’s 2000 Guineas Back In Action, But Will He Need The Run?
Notable Speech (9/2) is joint top-rated on 1222 and returns to action for the first time since finishing a close-up third in the Breeders’ Cup Mile.
He’s won five of his six starts in Britain and defeated Rosallion in last year’s 2000 Guineas before putting his St James’s Palace disappointment aside when landing the Sussex Stakes.
Godolphin have been dominant so far this season and there’s every chance this four-year-old will go well, but the lack of a run does linger in my mind.
Rosallion Looks Vulnerable
Market leader Rosallion (2/1) is another making his seasonal reappearance, so is another with fitness to prove, but he’s won five of his seven starts and was on a warpath when last seen.
This three-time Group 1 winner followed up last season’s Irish 2000 Guineas victory with a narrow success in the St James’s Palace on his next start, but the runner-up has disappointed since, and Richard Hannon’s charge missed the rest of last season due to a setback.
Even if he turns up here in the same form as he did when last seen, I think he’s vulnerable, so he’s plenty short enough in the market. He might well be joint top-rated, but I’m against him here.
A Few Others Will Find This Tough
The likes of Fallen Angel (20/1) and Persica (14/1) will need career-best performances to succeed and both look a little out of their depth, with the same applied to rank outsider Checkandchallenge (150/1).
The former is a dual Group 1 winner but they weren’t the strongest of events and she lacks a recent run, while the latter is stepping up markedly in class following a Group 3 success at Newmarket.
Tammy Can Go Well
Then we are left with TAMFANA (9/2), who I think has an excellent chance of at least making the frame for David Menuisier.
I thought she ran very well when second to the race-fit Dancing Gemini on her return when burdened with a penalty, but these circumstances will be a lot different, as she will enjoy a 5lb swing in the weights with that reopposing rival.
She was a little unlucky not to win the 1000 Guineas last season (fourth) but won her next two starts including the Group 1 Sun Chariot Stakes at Newmarket when beating Inspiral and See The Fire by a comfortable two lengths plus.
The latter absolutely bolted up at York earlier this week to advertise the form and this filly lost little in defeat when third in the QEII on Champions Day at Ascot in her next (a place in front of Dancing Gemini) in spite of the ground being completely against her.
Verdict
Rosallion and Notable Speech have leading claims on form, but both lack a decent run, and I’m happy to leave the pair alone on that front. Dancing Gemini has done well so far this season but the ground might be too quick for him to show his best.
In what is a deep renewal, I’ll take a chance on TAMFANA, who shaped promisingly on her return when a lot was against her, and she comes out well on these terms with her allowance coming into effect.
Her allowance is a huge advantage to have in a race like this and Rossa Ryan will do the steering this time. Her record over this trip reads 141132 and being ever-so-consistent, another top flight success could be on the cards.
She’s a Group 1 winner and is sure to be in the mix if she’s as good as last season, perhaps even better! It’s a huge day for connections, so hopefully she can do the team proud with a big effort against the leading males.
Back TAMFANA each-way (1 point e/w, 9/2 generally) in the Lockinge Stakes.
Regards,
Architect Tips
